Modelling the impact of reduction in meat and dairy consumption on nutrient intakes and greenhouse gas emissions in children and young people living in Scotland

Most children and young people in Scotland reported consuming meat (90%) and dairy (99.6%), so any recommended changes to meat and dairy consumption are likely to impact a large proportion of this population. Young people aged 11 to 15 years are the highest meat consumers and children aged 2 to 10 years are the highest dairy consumers. 

Greenhouse gas emissions associated with diets of children and young people could be reduced by up to ~28% of baseline emissions by reducing red and red processed meat to achieve a 35% reduction in “total meat”. Significant reductions were observed across all replacement scenarios, whether meat and dairy were replaced with vegetables, eggs or plant-based alternatives.

Current intakes of meat and dairy among children and young people in Scotland provide insights that can inform policies to support achieving the CCC recommendations. For example:

• Most meat eaten is poultry (40%) or pork (37%) with beef contributing about one-fifth (21%) and lamb contributing very small amounts (1%).
• More than half of dairy (67%) was consumed as milk.
• Homemade dishes containing chicken or beef, such as a chicken breast or spaghetti Bolognese, and ham sandwiches are some of the most common ways in which children and young people in Scotland consume meat.
• Red and red processed meat consumption is spread across lunch and dinner.
• A very small proportion (6-7%) of red and red processed meat was purchased at cafes, restaurants, pubs, and takeaways (i.e., out of home foods).

There were very few differences in meat and dairy intake by SIMD among children and young people. There were no meaningful differences in dairy consumption or dairy type (i.e., milk versus yoghurt versus cheese). There were no differences in meat consumption except that those living in the most deprived neighbourhoods had slightly higher white meat consumption (32g/day versus 26g/day in the least deprived neighbourhoods) and had a higher proportion of meat from poultry (42% versus 35%) and smaller proportion of meat from pork (32% versus 44%). The higher white meat / poultry consumption was driven by higher intake of ‘coated chicken manufactured’, which includes chicken nuggets/pieces/dippers and coated chicken breast fillets.

‘Meat and meat products’ were major contributors (contributing >20%) to intakes of selenium (24.0%) and zinc (21.4%). ‘Milk and milk products’ were major contributors to intakes of calcium (35.5%), iodine (44.6%), and vitamin B12 (39.1%).

An alternative approach to recommending all consumers reduce all their meat (including poultry) would be to focus on high consumers of red and red processed meat. Our modelling showed that a 20% reduction in the population average “total meat” intake could be achieved if maximum red and red processed meat intake was pegged at 33g/day for children aged 2 to 4 years; 39g/day for children 5 to 10 years; and 54g/day for young people aged 11 to 15 years. This value for 11- to 15-year-olds is only slightly lower than a comparable value found in a previous report (Modelling the impact of reductions in meat and dairy consumption on nutrient intakes and disease risk) for adults (60g/day). Likewise, a 35% reduction in the population average “total meat” intake could be achieved if maximum red and red processed meat intake was pegged at 17g/day for children aged 2 to 4 years; 19g/day for children 5 to 10 years; and 26g/day for young people aged 11 to 15 years. This value for 11- to 15-year-olds is only slightly lower than a comparable value found in the previous report for adults (31g/day).

Under the most useful scenarios to demonstrate both the achievement of the public health goal for red and red processed meat, and the worst-case scenario of no replacement:

• The percentages of the population below the LRNI for zinc would increase by ~4-35 percentage points (Table 8). This was the largest impact on any nutrient, due to both ‘meat and meat products’ and ‘milk and milk products’ contributing ~20% each to zinc intake at baseline.
• The percentages of the population below the LRNI for iodine would increase by ~4-7 percentage points (Table 8).
• The percentages of young people aged 11 to 15 years below the LRNI for iron, calcium, selenium, and vitamin B12 would increase by ~3-6 percentage points (Table 8).
• The percentages of children aged 2 to 10 years below the LRNI for iron, calcium, selenium, and vitamin B12 would increase by ~1-3 percentage points (Table 8).
• Intakes of protein are not of concern at baseline or after meat and dairy reductions.
• Most of the decreases in iron and selenium were attributed to reductions in meat whereas most of the decreases in calcium, iodine and vitamin B12 were attributed to reductions in dairy. The contribution of meat and dairy to decreases in protein and zinc in these scenarios was relatively equivalent.

Table 8

Summary of percentage of the population below the LRNI for key nutrients among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland at baseline (2024) and following a reduction in red and red processed meat to achieve a 20% or 35% reduction in “total meat” together with a 20% reduction in dairy and no replacement.

While the nutritional status (meaning the level of nutrients available in the body for use in maintaining bodily functions) was not determined in this study, NDNS evaluated nutritional status for three of the six nutrients evaluated in this report (iron, iodine, and vitamin B12). There was evidence of low iron stores in 17% of girls aged 11 to 18 years (Table 9). However, all age and sex groups met the World Health Organization criteria for adequate iodine status (median urinary iodine concentrations between 100 and 199µg/l and fewer than 20% of the population below 50µg/l) and <5% had serum vitamin B12 levels below the threshold (Table 9).

Table 9

Summary of percentage of the population below the threshold for biomarkers of nutritional status in NDNS, years 9-11 (2016/17-2018/19).

The modelling indicated potential positive impacts on overall diet, when reductions are made and replacements are included. Replacing meat and dairy with a variety of products, including pulses and legumes, vegetables, eggs, oily fish, plant-based alternatives, or chicken can increase the percentage of children and young people meeting the goals for energy density, total fat, saturated fat, fibre, and salt. However, modelled replacements – which are based on current intakes – suggest that these scenarios may slightly reduce the percentage of children and young people meeting the goals for free sugars and total carbohydrates.

Table 10

Summary of impacts of reducing meat and dairy on the achievement of the Scottish Dietary Goals among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland, 2024. 'In' indicates increased adherence and 'De' indicates decreased adherence.

Overall, this research suggests that dairy and meat are widely consumed by children and young people in Scotland and are a major source of nutrients, particularly zinc which is generally too low in this population, and iodine and calcium, which are generally too low in young people (11 to 15 years). Reducing either “total meat” or red and red processed meat could result in significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions associated with diets of children  and young people. 

However, given that children and young people aged 2 to 15 years make up only about 15% of Scotland’s population, these impacts will be much less than the impacts of similar reductions among adults. Careful consideration of replacements could mitigate some—but not all—of the negative impacts on nutrient intake and maximise positive impacts on achievement of the Scottish Dietary Goals. However, given the especially poor diets of young people (11 to 15 years), concerted efforts are needed to improve overall diet quality for this population.