- Executive summary table 1 Summary of two most useful simulation scenarios to demonstrate both the achievement of the public health goal for red and red processed meat, and the worst-case scenario of no replacement
- Executive summary table 2 Summary of percentage of the population below the LRNI for key nutrients among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland at baseline (2024) and following a reduction in red and red processed meat to achieve a 20% or 35% reduction in the population average “total meat” intake for children and young people, together with a 20% reduction in dairy and no replacement
- Abbreviations table
- Table 1 Characteristics of children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland who completed at least one dietary recall, 2024
- Table 2 Example of hierarchy of food groups evaluated for the food category, ‘milk and milk products’
- Table 3 Example of hierarchy of food groups evaluated for the food category, ‘meat and meat products’.
- Table 4 Most commonly reported meat-containing food items within the top five contributing sub food groups to meat consumption among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland, 2024.
- Table 5 Daily maximum intake of red and red processed meat required to achieve a 20% or 35% reduction in “total meat”, for the entire population of 2- to 15-year-olds and by age group.
- Table 6 Summary of simulation scenarios for reducing meat and dairy among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years in Scotland.
- Table 7 Definition of achieving Scottish Dietary Goals in children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland.
- Table 8 Summary of percentage of the population below the LRNI for key nutrients among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland at baseline (2024) and following a reduction in red and red processed meat to achieve a 20% or 35% reduction in “total meat” together with a 20% reduction in dairy and no replacement.
- Table 9 Summary of percentage of the population below the threshold for biomarkers of nutritional status in NDNS, years 9-11 (2016/17-2018/19).
- Table 10 Summary of impacts of reducing meat and dairy on the achievement of the Scottish Dietary Goals among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland, 2024.
Executive summary
The Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) Seventh Carbon Budget recommends that population average meat and dairy consumption declines by 20% by 2035, rising to a 35% reduction in meat by 2050 compared to 2019 levels. A steeper reduction in red meat consumption is recommended (40% by 2050) to reflect the higher carbon intensity of beef and lamb. The CCC also recommends meat products are replaced by plant-based alternative protein products, plant-based whole foods, and, in later years, novel alternative proteins such as those produced using precision fermentation.
Throughout this report, unless otherwise specified, “total meat” and “meat” refer to all of the following: beef, lamb, pork, other red meat, offal, poultry, game birds, processed red meat, processed poultry, burgers, and sausages.
“Red and red processed meat” refers to all of the following: beef, lamb, pork, other red meat, processed red meat, burgers, sausages, and offal.
“Processed meat” refers to processed red meat and processed poultry.
“Dairy” refers to milk, cheese, yoghurt, cream, and butter.
This transition to less meat and dairy relates to the average UK diet, and the CCC recognises that individual reductions will vary by various characteristics such as current consumption levels, age, and personal preference. For example, adults currently consuming well above the Eatwell recommended level of red and processed meat may see much larger reductions than young people with insufficient nutrient intakes, who may not reduce their consumption at all in a scenario wherein population average intake still declines.
The aims of this report were to describe current intakes of meat and dairy among children and young people living in Scotland, and to model the impact of various meat and dairy reduction scenarios on energy and nutrient intake, achievement of the Scottish Dietary Goals, and greenhouse gas emissions. Data underlying the report were collected in 2024 from 1,700 children and young people aged 2 to 15 years who completed 1-4 days of diet recall as part of the Dietary Intake in Scotland’s cHildren (DISH) Survey. As such, reductions in meat and dairy reflect reductions from 2024 levels, not 2019 levels as data were not available for diets of children and young people living in Scotland from 2019.
Current meat and dairy consumption
Most children and young people in Scotland reported consuming meat (90%) and dairy (99.6%). Most meat eaten is poultry (40%) or pork (37%) with beef contributing about one-fifth (21%) and lamb contributing very small amounts (1%). More than half of dairy (67%) was consumed as milk.
Young people aged 11 to 15 years are the highest meat consumers and children aged 2 to 10 years are the highest dairy consumers.
There were no meaningful differences in dairy consumption or dairy type (i.e., milk versus yoghurt versus cheese) by SIMD among children and young people. There were also no differences in meat consumption except that those living in the most deprived neighbourhoods had slightly higher white meat consumption (32g/day versus 26g/day in the least deprived neighbourhoods) and had a higher proportion of meat from poultry (42% versus 35%) and smaller proportion of meat from pork (32% versus 44%). The higher white meat / poultry consumption was driven by higher intake of ‘coated chicken manufactured’, which includes chicken nuggets/pieces/dippers and coated chicken breast fillets.
Meat and meat products were major contributors (contributing >20%) to intakes of selenium (24.0%) and zinc (21.4%). Milk and milk products were major contributors to intakes of calcium (35.5%), iodine (44.6%), and vitamin B12 (39.1%).
Seventy-eight percent of children and young people consumed at least some red and red processed meat. Red and red processed meat consumption is spread across lunch and dinner. A very small proportion (6-7%) of red and red processed meat was purchased at cafes, restaurants, pubs, and takeaways (i.e., out of home foods).
Achieving a 20% or 35% reduction in total meat by reducing red and red processed meat
Our modelling showed that a 20% reduction in the population average “total meat” intake for children and young people could be achieved if maximum red and red processed meat intake was pegged at 33g/day for children aged 2 to 4 years; 39g/day for children 5 to 10 years; and 54g/day for young people aged 11 to 15 years. This value for 11- to 15-year-olds is only slightly lower than a comparable value found in a previous report (Modelling the impact of reductions in meat and dairy consumption on nutrient intakes and disease risk) for adults (60g/day).
Likewise, a 35% reduction in the population average “total meat” intake for children and young people could be achieved if maximum red and red processed meat intake was pegged at 17g/day for children aged 2 to 4 years; 19g/day for children 5 to 10 years; and 26g/day for young people aged 11 to 15 years. This value for 11- to 15-year-olds is only slightly lower than a comparable value found in a previous report (Modelling the impact of reductions in meat and dairy consumption on nutrient intakes and disease risk) for adults (31g/day).
Impact of reducing meat and dairy consumption on nutrient intake
We simulated 27 scenarios. However, here we focus on the two most useful scenarios to demonstrate both the achievement of the public health goal for red and red processed meat, and the worst-case scenario of no replacement: (1) 20% less meat, 20% less dairy, RRPM [red and red processed meat] and (2) 35% less meat, 20% less dairy, RRPM (Executive summary table 1).
Executive summary table 1.
Summary of two most useful simulation scenarios to demonstrate both the achievement of the public health goal for red and red processed meat, and the worst-case scenario of no replacement.
| Name | Change in meat | Replacement of meat | Change in dairy | Replacement of dairy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% less meat, 20% less dairy, RRPM | RRPM max 33g/d in 2-4y, 39g/d in 5-10y, 54g/d in 11-15y | None | 20% reduction all dairy | None |
| 35% less meat, 20% less dairy, RRPM | RRPM max 17g/d in 2-4y, 19g/d in 5-10y, 26g/d in 11-15y | None | 20% reduction all dairy | None |
The impact of these two scenarios on nutrient intake was as follows (Executive summary table 2):
- The percentages of the population below the lower reference nutrient intake (LRNI) for zinc would increase by ~4-35 percentage points. This was the largest impact on any nutrient, due to both ‘meat and meat products’ and ‘milk and milk products’ contributing ~20% each to zinc intake at baseline.
- The percentages of the population below the LRNI for iodine would increase by ~4-7 percentage points.
- The percentages of young people aged 11 to 15 years below the LRNI for iron, calcium, selenium, and vitamin B12 would increase by ~3-6 percentage points.
- The percentages of children aged 2 to 10 years below the LRNI for iron, calcium, selenium, and vitamin B12 would increase by ~1-3 percentage points.
- Intakes of protein are not of concern at baseline or after meat and dairy reductions.
- Most of the decreases in iron and selenium were attributed to reductions in meat whereas most of the decreases in calcium, iodine and vitamin B12 were attributed to reductions in dairy. The contribution of meat and dairy to decreases in protein and zinc in these scenarios was relatively equivalent.
Executive summary table 2.
Summary of percentage of the population below the LRNI for key nutrients among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland at baseline (2024) and following a reduction in red and red processed meat to achieve a 20% or 35% reduction in the population average “total meat” intake for children and young people, together with a 20% reduction in dairy and no replacement.
| Baseline | 20% less meat, 20% less dairy, RRPM | 35% less meat, 20% less dairy, RRPM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iron | |||
| 2-4y | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| 5-10y | 3% | 4% | 4% |
| 11-15y | 31% | 34% | 36% |
| Calcium | |||
| 2-4y | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 5-10y | 3% | 4% | 4% |
| 11-15y | 15% | 19% | 20% |
| Iodine | |||
| 2-4y | 10% | 14% | 14% |
| 5-10y | 8% | 11% | 12% |
| 11-15y | 24% | 31% | 31% |
| Selenium | |||
| 2-4y | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 5-10y | 2% | 4% | 5% |
| 11-15y | 21% | 25% | 27% |
| Zinc | |||
| 2-4y | 9% | 13% | 15% |
| 5-10y | 9% | 14% | 19% |
| 11-15y | 26% | 34% | 41% |
| Vitamin B12 | |||
| 2-4y | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 5-10y | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 11-15y | 5% | 6% | 8% |
Impact of reducing meat and dairy consumption on achievement of the Scottish Dietary Goals
The modelling indicated potential positive impacts on overall diet, when reductions are made and replacements are included. Replacing meat and dairy with a variety of products, including pulses and legumes, vegetables, eggs, oily fish, plant-based alternatives, or chicken can increase the percentage of children and young people meeting the goals for energy density, total fat, saturated fat, fibre, and salt. However, modelled replacements – which are based on current intakes – suggest that these scenarios may slightly reduce the percentage of children and young people meeting the goals for free sugars and total carbohydrates.
Impact of reducing meat and dairy consumption on greenhouse gas emissions
On average, in 2024, dietary greenhouse gas emissions among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland were 3.65 kgCO2e per day. Emissions were lowest for 2- to 4-year-olds (2.98 kgCO2e per day) and highest for 11- to 15-year-olds (4.00 kgCO2e per day).
Greenhouse gas emissions associated with diets of children and young people could be reduced by up to ~28% of baseline emissions by reducing red and red processed meat to achieve a 35% reduction in “total meat”. Significant reductions were observed across all replacement scenarios, whether meat and dairy were replaced with vegetables, eggs or plant-based alternatives.
Recommendations
Overall, this research suggests that dairy and meat are widely consumed by children and young people in Scotland and are an important source of nutrients, particularly zinc which is generally too low in this population, and iodine and calcium, which are generally too low in young people (11 to 15 years). Reducing either “total meat” or red and red processed meat could result in significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions associated with diets of children and young people. However, given that children and young people aged 2 to 15 years make up only about 15% of Scotland’s population, these impacts will be much less than the impacts of similar reductions among adults. Careful consideration of replacements could mitigate some—but not all—of the negative impacts on nutrient intake and maximise positive impacts on achievement of the Scottish Dietary Goals. However, given the especially poor diets of young people (11 to 15 years), concerted efforts are needed to improve overall diet quality for this population.