Modelling the impact of reduction in meat and dairy consumption on nutrient intakes and greenhouse gas emissions in children and young people living in Scotland

In order to understand the likely nutritional risks of reducing meat and dairy consumption, we evaluated current intakes of meat and dairy, and the contribution of ‘meat and meat products’ and ‘milk and milk products’ to energy and select nutrients for which meat and dairy are likely to be major sources (protein, calcium, iron, iodine, selenium, zinc, and vitamin B12). 

DISH is a representative survey of the diets of children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland. Diet data were collected in 2024 using an online platform called Intake24. Up to four 24-hour dietary recalls were collected from each child. Diets were reported by parents/guardians for children in pre-school or primary school. Children in secondary school had the opportunity to report their own diets, and a majority (61%) of them did so. The final sample was 1,700 children and young people. Most (84%) participants completed two or more recalls; 32% completed four recalls.

Unless otherwise specified, all statistics presented in this report are weighted to be representative of children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland. The multiple source method (a statistical model) was used to estimate usual intake for all nutrients and meat and dairy except for game and lamb which were consumed by <15% of participants (3,4).

Differences by sex, age group, sex and age group, and SIMD quintile were tested using Wilcoxon rank-sum tests for complex survey samples for continuous outcomes and chi-squared tests with Rao and Scott's second-order correction for binary outcomes. Only statistically significant differences (p-value<0.05) were highlighted in the text of this report.

Characteristics of the survey sample are presented in Table 1. The median age was 9 years, 48% were female, 87% were white, and 17% lived in single-parent households.

Table 1. Characteristics of children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland who completed at least one dietary recall, 2024.

Estimates of meat consumption were based on disaggregated meat values (5). We estimated five meat categories: 

1. Total meat: beef, lamb, pork, other red meat, offal, poultry, game birds, processed red meat, processed poultry, burgers, and sausages
2. Red meat (unprocessed): beef, lamb, pork, other red meat, and offal
3. White meat (unprocessed): poultry and game birds
4. Processed meat: processed red meat, processed poultry, burgers, and sausages
5. Red and red processed meat: beef, lamb, pork, other red meat, offal, processed red meat, burgers, and sausages

We also estimated the intake of each animal type[1]:

1. Beef
2. Lamb
3. Pork
4. Poultry
5. Game

Estimates of dairy consumption were also based on disaggregated dairy values previously derived for the Scottish Health Survey (SHeS) and updated for DISH (6,7). We estimated six dairy categories:

1. Total dairy: milk, cheese, yoghurt, cream, and butter
2. Milk: skimmed, semi-skimmed, and whole varieties
3. Cheese[2]: cheddar cheese, cottage cheese, and other cheese; skimmed, semi-skimmed, and whole varieties
4. Yoghurt[3]: skimmed, semi-skimmed, and whole varieties
5. Cream: semi-skimmed and whole varieties
6. Butter

We explored three levels of food groups (see Table 2 and Table 3 for examples, and Table 12 in Annexe 1 for all food categories): 

1. Food categories (16 total)
2. Main food group (58 total)
3. Sub food group (131 total)

Table 2

Example of hierarchy of food groups evaluated for the food category, ‘milk and milk products’.

Table 3

Example of hierarchy of food groups evaluated for the food category, ‘meat and meat products’.

All food categories and groups except ‘alcoholic beverages’ and ‘artificial sweeteners’ (which were not reported due to low numbers reporting in the sample) were analysed and reported as defined in the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS) and SHeS though we made some modifications to the food category ‘milk and milk products’, notably the inclusion of milky coffees (e.g., lattes, cappuccinos) and butter, and the removal of dairy-free items (see Table 13 in Annexe 1).

Ninety percent of respondents were meat consumers (i.e., they reported eating >0g of any meat across their dietary recalls): 67% consumed processed meat, 65% consumed white meat, and 47% consumed red meat. Females were less likely to be consumers of processed meat and children aged 2 to 4 years were less likely to be consumers of red meat, especially among males (Figure 1). Those living in the least deprived neighbourhoods were less likely to consume white meat than those living in more deprived neighbourhoods. There were no other meaningful differences in the percentage of consumers of total meat, processed meat, white meat, or red meat across population subgroups.

Overall, 42% of the meat eaten was white meat, 39% was processed meat and 19% was red meat. There was not a meaningful difference in these proportions by sex (Figure 2). However, the proportion from processed meat was significantly higher in 2- to 4-year-olds than 11- to 15-year-olds (43% versus 35%, respectively) and the proportion from white meat significantly lower (37% in 2- to 4-year-olds versus 46% in 11- to 15-year-olds). Those living in the least deprived neighbourhoods had the highest proportion from processed meat (42% versus 37% among those living in the most deprived neighbourhoods) and the lowest proportion from white meat (39% versus 43% among those living in the most deprived neighbourhoods).

Average meat consumption for all ages was 71g/day, comprised of 29g/day white meat, 27g/day processed meat, and 13g/day red meat.[4]

Differences by population subgroups were as follows (Figure 3):

• Males consumed, on average, significantly more total meat, processed meat, and red meat than females, but the differences were relatively small (e.g., ~5g/day more processed meat and ~2g/day more red meat).
• The amount of total meat, processed meat, white meat, and red meat consumed, on average, was significantly higher in older children. For example, total meat consumption was 45g/day in children aged 2 to 4 years and 87g/day in young people aged 11 to 15 years.
• The amount of meat and meat types consumed was higher in older age groups in both females and males, but the difference was larger among males. For example, total meat consumption in females was 42g/day in 2- to 4-year-olds versus 74g/day in 11- to 15-year-olds. In males, total meat consumption was 48g/day in 2- to 4-year-olds versus 104g/day in 11- to 15-year-olds.
• The amount of total meat consumed, on average, was significantly higher among those living in the most deprived neighbourhoods compared to those in the least deprived neighbourhoods. This was driven by significantly higher consumption of white meat: 32g/day in SIMD 1st (Most Deprived) versus 26g/day in SIMD 5th (Least Deprived).

The majority of the meat eaten was poultry (40%) followed by pork (37%) and beef (21%), with small intakes from lamb (1%). There was not a meaningful difference in these proportions by sex or age group, however, among females, the proportions of meat from beef and pork was slightly lower in older children whereas the proportion from poultry was slightly higher (Figure 4). The proportion of meat from pork was lower and the proportion from poultry higher among those in SIMD 1st (Most Deprived) compared to those in SIMD 5th (Least Deprived).

The top contributing main food groups to total meat consumption (g) among consumers were ‘chicken, turkey and dishes’ (herein: ‘chicken dishes’) (20.3%), followed by ‘beef, veal and dishes’ (herein: ‘beef dishes’) (14.6%), ‘sandwiches’ (12.4%), ‘coated chicken and turkey manufactured’ (10.6%), and ‘sausages’ (9.6%) (Annexe Tables 1). 

The following differences were observed in contributions of main food groups to total meat consumption by population subgroup (Annexe Tables 1):

• ‘Sausages’ were a larger contributor among males (10.9%) versus females (8.2%).
• ‘Sandwiches’ were a larger contributor among young people aged 11 to 15 years (14.2%) versus children aged 2 to 4 years (10.7%).
• ‘Burgers and kebabs’ were a larger contributor among young people aged 11 to 15 years (2.2%) versus children aged 2 to 4 years (0.5%).
• ‘Coated chicken and turkey manufactured’ was a larger contributor among those living in SIMD 1st (Most Deprived) versus those living in SIMD 5th (Least Deprived): 12.3% versus 8.3%.
• Sausages were a larger contributor among those living in SIMD 5th (Least Deprived) versus those living in SIMD 1st (Most Deprived): 12.9% versus 6.7%.

More specifically, within the sub food group ‘other chicken and turkey including homemade recipe dishes’, ‘chicken breast, fried’, was the most commonly reported food item (Table 4). Within the sub food group, ‘other beef and veal including homemade recipe dishes’, ‘spaghetti bolognese’ and ‘beef burgers’ were the most commonly reported food items. Within the sub food group, ‘sandwiches’, and ‘other sausages including homemade recipe dishes’, ‘ham sandwiches’ and ‘grilled pork sausages’ were most common, respectively.

Table 4

Most commonly reported meat-containing food items within the top five contributing sub food groups to meat consumption among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland, 2024.

Seventy-eight percent of DISH respondents consumed at least some red and red processed meat. The Goals do not currently specify a target for children and young people, but, for adults, the target is to reduce red and red processed meat consumption to a maximum of 70g/day.

A 20% or 35% reduction in “total meat” consumption could be achieved by specifically reducing red and red processed meat consumption among high consumers. In order to define high consumers, we calculated how much red and red processed meat consumption would have to be reduced to achieve a 20% or 35% reduction in “total meat”, overall and by age group. Because the calculation was completed at the food item level, these calculations were not adjusted for usual intake using the multiple source method. The results of these calculations were as follows (Table 5):

• Overall, across all ages, reducing red and red processed meat consumption in high consumers to a maximum of 45g/day would achieve a 20% reduction in “total meat”.
  • Specifically, reducing red and red processed meat consumption in high consumers to a maximum of 33g/day in 2-4y, 39g/day in 5-10y and 54g/day in 11-15y. This would affect 36% of the population of children and young people.
• Overall, across all ages, reducing red and red processed meat consumption in high consumers to a maximum of 22g/day would achieve a 35% reduction in “total meat”.
  • Specifically, reducing red and red processed meat consumption in high consumers to a maximum of 17g/day in 2-4y, 19g/day in 5-10y and 26g/day in 11-15y. This would affect 60% of the population of children and young people.

Table 5

Daily maximum intake of red and red processed meat required to achieve a 20% or 35% reduction in “total meat”, for the entire population of 2- to 15-year-olds and by age group. 

Consumers of red and red processed meat exceeding the values in Table 5 (max intake of red and red processed meat to achieve a 20% reduction in “total meat”) were described as ‘high consumers’:

• For those aged 2 to 4 years: consuming >33g/day
• For those aged 5 to 10 years: consuming >39g/day
• For those aged 11 to 15 years: consuming >54g/day

Those at or below these values were described as ‘moderate consumers’. 

Mean intake of red and red processed meat was 40.6g/day: 69.8g/day among high consumers and 31.5g/day among moderate consumers. 

Males were more likely to be a high consumer of red and red processed meat (40%) than females (32%) (P=0.002). There were no significant differences by age group or SIMD.

Lunch and dinner accounted for the highest proportion of red and red processed meat among both high (40% and 43% for lunch and dinner respectively) and moderate (44% and 44%) consumers. Breakfast accounted for a significantly higher proportion of red and red processed meat among high consumers (6.3%) than moderate consumers (2.6%) (Figure 5).[5]

The majority of red and red processed meat was purchased from supermarkets (85% for high consumers and 81% for moderate consumers), with 6-7% purchased from out of home and 8-10% from schools or nursery (Figure 5). There were no meaningful differences in the source of red and red processed meat between high and moderate consumers.

On average, red and red processed meat consumption was highest on Tuesday, followed by Thursday and Sunday with similar patterns between high and moderate consumers (Figure 5).[6]

‘Beef dishes’ and ‘sandwiches’ (notably ‘spaghetti bolognese’ and ‘ham sandwiches’) were the largest contributors to intake among high (27.4% and 21.7%, respectively) and moderate (23.8% and 16.7%, respectively) consumers (Figure 6).

Nearly all (99.6%) respondents consumed dairy, and this was true across all population subgroups. Average dairy consumption was 274g/day, comprised of 210g/day milk, 26g/day cheese, 24g/day yoghurt, 7g/day butter, and 7g/day cream.

Differences by population subgroups were as follows (Figure 7):

• Males consumed more dairy than females (305g/day versus 240g/day). This was largely driven by higher consumption of milk, and, albeit to a lesser extent, cheese.
• Children aged 2 to 4 years and 5 to 10 years consumed more dairy than young people 11 to 15 years (290 and 298g/day versus 236g/day). This was largely driven by higher consumption of milk and yoghurt. There were no significant differences in cheese intake by age.
• The lower dairy consumption in older children was especially true for females as compared to males (283g/day in 2- to 4-year-old females versus 198g/day in 11- to 15-year-old females as compared to 297g/day versus 284g/day in males). This difference was largely driven by proportionally lower milk consumption among females as compared to males.
• There were not significant differences in dairy consumption across SIMD quintiles.

The majority of the dairy consumed by weight was milk (67%) followed by cheese (15%) and yoghurt (10%), with smaller contributions from butter (4%) and cream (4%). About half (53%) of the dairy consumed was low fat (skimmed or semi-skimmed).

These proportions differed across population subgroups in the following ways (Figure 8):

• Males had a slightly higher proportion of dairy from milk as compared to females (70% versus 64%) and slightly lower proportion from cheese (13% versus 16%).
• Young people aged 11 to 15 years had a slightly lower proportion of dairy from milk (63% versus 68-70%) and yoghurt (8% versus 10-15%) and slightly higher proportion from cheese (18% versus 13%), and butter (6% versus 3-4%) as compared to children aged 2 to 10 years. These trends were observed in both males and females.
• There were no meaningful differences in the proportion of dairy from milk, cheese, yoghurt, butter, or cream across SIMD quintiles. 

Among dairy consumers, the top contributing main food groups to dairy consumption (g) were: ‘semi-skimmed milk’ (22.7%), ‘whole milk’ (19.4%), ‘yoghurt, fromage frais and other dairy desserts’ (9.5%, with 9.1% specifically from yoghurt), ‘pasta, rice, pizza, and other miscellaneous cereals’ (7.3%, with 4.1% from pizza), ‘cheese’ (5.6%), and ‘sandwiches’ (4.8%) (Annexe Tables 2). 

The following differences were observed in contributions of main food groups to dairy consumption by population subgroup (Annexe Tables 2):

• ‘Whole milk’ contributed a slightly greater percentage among males (21.7%) versus females (17.1%).
• ‘Whole milk’ contributed a greater percentage – more than twice as much – among children aged 2 to 4 years (30.9%) versus young people aged 11 to 15 years (12.3%).
• ‘Semi-skimmed milk’ contributed a slightly greater percentage among young people aged 11 to 15 years (21.6%) versus children aged 2 to 4 years (18.7%).
• ‘Yoghurt, fromage frais and other dairy desserts’ contributed a greater percentage among children aged 2 to 4 years (12.6%) versus young people aged 11 to 15 years (6.7%).
• There were no meaningful differences in food groups contributing to dairy consumption by SIMD quintiles.

Overall, 80.9% of ‘sandwiches’ contained dairy (n=1,102), among these the most common ‘sandwiches’ were ‘plain ham sandwiches (containing butter)’ and ‘cheese sandwiches’. All ‘pizzas’ contained dairy, except ‘pizza dough items’ (97.9%, n=597), among these, the most frequently reported ‘pizzas’ were ‘cheese and tomato (e.g., Margherita)’ (65%, n = 394) and ‘meat pizza (e.g., Hawaiian, pepperoni, meat feast)’ (17%, n = 106).

The following sections present nutrient intake from food and drink only (i.e., not including supplements). 

Collectively, ‘meat and meat products’ and ‘milk and milk products’ accounted for 26% of energy intake and 41% of protein intake (Figure 9). 

• ‘Meat and meat products’ contributed a greater percentage to energy and protein among young people aged 11 to 15 years versus children aged 2 to 4 years. The opposite was observed for ‘milk and milk products’ which contributed a smaller percentage to energy and protein among young people aged 11 to 15 years versus children aged 2 to 4 years. These trends were observed in both males and females.
• The contribution of ‘meat and meat products’ to energy and protein was higher among those living in the most deprived neighbourhoods compared to those living in the least deprived neighbourhoods (14.6% compared to 11.1% for energy and 25.6% compared to 21.2% for protein). The opposite was observed for ‘milk and milk products’ (13.1% compared to 11.4% for energy in SIMD 1 versus SIMD 5 respectively, and 17.2% compared to 15.2% for protein).
• There were no meaningful differences in the contribution of ‘meat and meat products’ or ‘milk and milk products’ to energy or protein by sex.

Contributions from ‘meat and meat products’ varied from 7.2% for calcium to 24.0% for selenium. Contributions from ‘milk and milk products’ varied from 2.2% for iron to 44.6% for iodine (Figure 10). Overall, ‘meat and meat products’ were major contributors (contributing >20%) to intakes of selenium (24.0%) and zinc (21.4%). ‘Milk and milk products’ were major contributors to intakes of calcium (35.5%), iodine (44.6%), and vitamin B12 (39.1%). 

• Compared to females, males had slightly higher contributions of ‘milk and milk products’ to intakes of calcium (36.9% versus 33.9%), iodine (46.8% versus 42.2%), and vitamin B12 (41.1% versus 37.0%).
• The contribution of ‘meat and meat products’ to intakes of calcium, iron, iodine, selenium, zinc, and vitamin B12 was higher in older children. The opposite was observed for ‘milk and milk products’ where the contribution of these products to nutrient intake was lower in older children. These trends were observed in males and females.
• ‘Meat and meat products’ contributed slightly more to intakes of iron (16.5% versus 11.7%), iodine (9.5% versus 6.9%), selenium (25.9% versus 20.7%) and zinc (23.8% versus 18.8%) in those living in the most deprived versus least deprived neighbourhoods.
• ‘Milk and milk products’ contributed slightly less to intakes of zinc (16.9% versus 18.9%) in those living in the most deprived versus least deprived neighbourhoods.

Footnotes

[1] This required manually identifying and re-categorising items as beef, lamb, pork, poultry, or game from the following disaggregated meat categories: processed red meat, other red meat, burgers, sausages, and offal. For example, under ‘processed red meat’, ‘corned beef, canned’ was classified as ‘beef’ whereas ‘glazed baked gammon’ was classified as ‘pork’. See Table 11 in Annexe 1 for details.

[2] Includes Quark which was consumed by 1 participant. 

[3] Includes Kefir which was consumed by 10 participants.

[4] The sum of the rounded means of meat subtypes does not equal the total meat due to rounding to the nearest whole gram.

[5] ‘Supermarkets’ included home delivery services like Hello Fresh and Gousto, as well as smaller shops such as butcher’s and baker’s. ‘Other’ sources included leisure centres, hospitals, food banks, vending machines, parties, holidays, and purchased from farms (e.g., eggs from local farm, fruit and veg box from farm, milk delivery, etc.)

[6] Only mean intakes by day of week were analysed—not the proportion of red and red processed meat consumed on a given day—because there was not an even distribution of recalls across the days of the week: Tuesday and Thursday were over-represented in the dietary data whereas Friday and Saturday were under-represented.