- Executive summary table 1 Summary of two most useful simulation scenarios to demonstrate both the achievement of the public health goal for red and red processed meat, and the worst-case scenario of no replacement
- Executive summary table 2 Summary of percentage of the population below the LRNI for key nutrients among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland at baseline (2024) and following a reduction in red and red processed meat to achieve a 20% or 35% reduction in the population average “total meat” intake for children and young people, together with a 20% reduction in dairy and no replacement
- Abbreviations table
- Table 1 Characteristics of children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland who completed at least one dietary recall, 2024
- Table 2 Example of hierarchy of food groups evaluated for the food category, ‘milk and milk products’
- Table 3 Example of hierarchy of food groups evaluated for the food category, ‘meat and meat products’.
- Table 4 Most commonly reported meat-containing food items within the top five contributing sub food groups to meat consumption among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland, 2024.
- Table 5 Daily maximum intake of red and red processed meat required to achieve a 20% or 35% reduction in “total meat”, for the entire population of 2- to 15-year-olds and by age group.
- Table 6 Summary of simulation scenarios for reducing meat and dairy among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years in Scotland.
- Table 7 Definition of achieving Scottish Dietary Goals in children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland.
- Table 8 Summary of percentage of the population below the LRNI for key nutrients among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland at baseline (2024) and following a reduction in red and red processed meat to achieve a 20% or 35% reduction in “total meat” together with a 20% reduction in dairy and no replacement.
- Table 9 Summary of percentage of the population below the threshold for biomarkers of nutritional status in NDNS, years 9-11 (2016/17-2018/19).
- Table 10 Summary of impacts of reducing meat and dairy on the achievement of the Scottish Dietary Goals among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland, 2024.
3. Simulation scenarios
“Total meat” refers to the following: beef, lamb, pork, other red meat, processed red meat, burgers, sausages, offal, poultry, game birds and processed poultry.
“Red and red processed meat” refers to the following: beef, lamb, pork, other red meat, processed red meat, burgers, sausages and offal.
The micro-Simulation of the Health Impacts of Food Transformations (mSHIFT) was used for all simulations. mSHIFT has previously been used to estimate the impact of the Sixth Carbon Budget recommendations to reduce meat and dairy on nutrient intake, adherence to the Scottish Dietary Goals, chronic diseases, and greenhouse gas emissions in SHeS 2021.
We first simulated a 20% reduction in “total meat” and dairy by 2030, and a 35% reduction in “total meat” and 20% reduction in dairy by 2050.
We then simulated reductions in red and red processed meat among high consumers to meet the 20% or 35% reduction in “total meat” along with a 20% reduction in dairy. Finally, we simulated a 20% reduction in dairy with no reduction in meat.
We modelled replacement of meat with foods rich in nutrients of concern. Nutrient values for replacement foods were taken from the UK Nutrient Databank. For each replacement food, a single composite nutrient value was derived, weighted based on frequency of reported intake of foods in this food group in DISH (Annexe 2). For example, for the replacement “pulses and legumes”, 76% of the nutrients were based on the nutrients in baked beans, 21% lentil soup, 1.5% houmous, and 1.5% reduced sugar baked beans. Using the nutrients from as-consumed products such as baked beans was thought to be a more realistic behaviour change than only replacing with the nutrients in pulses and legumes.
Given evidence that as consumption of red meat has declined in the UK, consumption of white meat has increased (8), we simulated the impact of replacing red and red processed meat with chicken in scenarios with reductions in red and red processed meat.
All dairy products were reduced by 20%. However, only milk, yoghurt, and butter were replaced (not cheese or cream). Milk was replaced with plant-based milk drinks[1], yoghurt with plant-based yoghurt[2], and butter with plant-based solid fats (Annexe 2). We did not replace cheese or cream as plant-based replacements for these products are not widely available in Scotland (9).
All replacements were gram-for-gram replacements, which means that calories were not held constant. This was thought to be a more realistic behaviour change than calorie-for-calorie replacement.
We simulated 27 scenarios (Table 6).
Table 6
Summary of simulation scenarios for reducing meat and dairy among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years in Scotland.
| No. | Name | Change in meat | Replacement of meat | Change in dairy | Replacement of dairy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20% less meat, 20% less dairy | 20% reduction “total meat” | None | 20% reduction all dairy | None |
| 2 | Pulses/legumes | PBDA* | |||
| 3 | Vegetables | PBDA* | |||
| 4 | Eggs | PBDA* | |||
| 5 | Oily fish | PBDA* | |||
| 6 | PBMA | PBDA* | |||
| 7 | 35% less meat, 20% less dairy | 35% reduction “total meat” | None | 20% reduction all dairy | None |
| 8 | Pulses/legumes | PBDA* | |||
| 9 | Vegetables | PBDA* | |||
| 10 | Eggs | PBDA* | |||
| 11 | Oily fish | PBDA* | |||
| 12 | PBMA | PBDA* | |||
| 13 | 20% less meat, 20% less dairy, RRPM | RRPM max 33g/d in 2-4y, 39g/d in 5-10y, 54g/d in 11-15y | None | 20% reduction all dairy | None |
| 14 | Pulses/legumes | PBDA* | |||
| 15 | Vegetables | PBDA* | |||
| 16 | Eggs | PBDA* | |||
| 17 | Oily fish | PBDA* | |||
| 18 | PBMA | PBDA* | |||
| 19 | Chicken | PBDA* | |||
| 20 | 35% less meat, 20% less dairy, RRPM | RRPM max 17g/d in 2-4y, 19g/d in 5-10y, 26g/d in 11-15y | None | 20% reduction all dairy | None |
| 21 | Pulses/legumes | PBDA* | |||
| 22 | Vegetables | PBDA* | |||
| 23 | Eggs | PBDA* | |||
| 24 | Oily fish | PBDA* | |||
| 25 | PBMA | PBDA* | |||
| 26 | Chicken | PBDA* | |||
| 27 | 20% less dairy | None | N/A | 20% reduction in all dairy | None |
Environmental impact data were obtained by mapping items in DISH to appropriate matches in foodDB (10,11). foodDB contains standardised environmental impacts data per 100g of approximately 70,000 items available in UK based supermarkets, derived by combining data from a large meta-analysis of life cycle assessments with an ingredient decomposition analysis (11,12). The environmental impact of each item in DISH was calculated as the average of the environmental impact of the matched items in foodDB. The total environmental impact was calculated by multiplying the environmental impact per gram by the gram weight of each consumed item, before summing over all items and dividing by the number of days of recall. Further details on the data processing required to match DISH to foodDB are provided in Annexe 1.
Footnotes
[1] For plant-based milk drinks, 95.8% of the nutrients were based on the nutrients in ‘oat milk,’ 2.2% ‘soya milk, unsweetened,’ and 1.4% ‘almond milk / hazelnut milk’ based on the frequency of reported intake of these foods in DISH. The nutrient composition of these plant-based milk drinks is from the UK Nutrient Databank.
[2] Yoghurt replaced with ‘soya yoghurt, plain (e.g. Alpro Soya)’ which was the only plant-based yoghurt available in the UK Nutrient Databank.