- Executive summary table 1 Summary of two most useful simulation scenarios to demonstrate both the achievement of the public health goal for red and red processed meat, and the worst-case scenario of no replacement
- Executive summary table 2 Summary of percentage of the population below the LRNI for key nutrients among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland at baseline (2024) and following a reduction in red and red processed meat to achieve a 20% or 35% reduction in the population average “total meat” intake for children and young people, together with a 20% reduction in dairy and no replacement
- Abbreviations table
- Table 1 Characteristics of children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland who completed at least one dietary recall, 2024
- Table 2 Example of hierarchy of food groups evaluated for the food category, ‘milk and milk products’
- Table 3 Example of hierarchy of food groups evaluated for the food category, ‘meat and meat products’.
- Table 4 Most commonly reported meat-containing food items within the top five contributing sub food groups to meat consumption among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland, 2024.
- Table 5 Daily maximum intake of red and red processed meat required to achieve a 20% or 35% reduction in “total meat”, for the entire population of 2- to 15-year-olds and by age group.
- Table 6 Summary of simulation scenarios for reducing meat and dairy among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years in Scotland.
- Table 7 Definition of achieving Scottish Dietary Goals in children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland.
- Table 8 Summary of percentage of the population below the LRNI for key nutrients among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland at baseline (2024) and following a reduction in red and red processed meat to achieve a 20% or 35% reduction in “total meat” together with a 20% reduction in dairy and no replacement.
- Table 9 Summary of percentage of the population below the threshold for biomarkers of nutritional status in NDNS, years 9-11 (2016/17-2018/19).
- Table 10 Summary of impacts of reducing meat and dairy on the achievement of the Scottish Dietary Goals among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland, 2024.
1. Introduction
1.1. Background
The 2022 CCC recommendations (in the Sixth Carbon Budget) for how reductions in greenhouse gas emissions may be achieved by the UK included the following:
“Low-cost, low-regret actions to encourage a 20% shift away from all meat by 2030, rising to 35% by 2050, and a 20% shift from dairy products by 2030.
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On 20 June 2023, the Scottish Government partially accepted this recommendation (1).
In February 2025, the CCC published its Seventh Carbon Budget, which included a shift to lower-carbon choices, particularly a shift from meat (especially beef and lamb) and dairy consumption to plant-based foods, within overall healthier diets. Specifically, the Seventh Carbon Budget recommends a 20% reduction in all meat by 2035 (versus 2030 in the Sixth Carbon Budget), rising to 35% by 2050, and a 20% reduction in dairy by 2035 (versus 2030 in the Sixth Carbon Budget) compared to 2019 levels. A steeper reduction in red meat consumption is recommended (40% by 2050) to reflect the higher carbon intensity of beef and lamb. The CCC also recommends meat products are replaced by plant-based alternative protein products, plant-based whole foods, and, in later years, novel alternative proteins such as those produced using precision fermentation.
This report on the impacts of reducing meat and dairy consumption among children and young people living in Scotland, follows a consistent approach to a previous report (Modelling the impact of reductions in meat and dairy consumption on nutrient intakes and disease risk) on the impacts in adults, which was based on the Sixth Carbon Budget.
This transition to less meat and dairy relates to the average UK diet, and the CCC recognises that individual reductions will vary by various characteristics such as current consumption levels, age, and personal preference. For example, adults currently consuming well above the Eatwell recommended level of red and processed meat may see much larger reductions than young people with insufficient nutrient intakes, who may not reduce their consumption at all in a scenario wherein population average intake still declines.
Food Standards Scotland (FSS) sought to establish the nutritional impact of a variety of reductions in meat and dairy consumption among children and young people living in Scotland. To this end, FSS commissioned the University of Edinburgh to complete modelling work through analysis of data collected in 2024, from 1,700 children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland, who completed 1-4 days of diet recall as part of the DISH Survey. As such, reductions in meat and dairy reflect reductions from 2024 levels, not 2019 levels as data were not available for diets of children and young people living in Scotland from 2019.
1.2. Aims
- Calculate current intakes of meat and dairy, overall and by sex, age group, sex and age group, and Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) quintile.
- Calculate the foods/food groups contributing to intake of meat and dairy, overall and by population subgroups.
- Calculate the contribution of ‘meat and meat products’ and ‘milk and milk products’ to nutrient intake, overall and by population subgroups.
- Investigate consumption behaviours of red and red processed meat.
- Model the impact of various scenarios on energy and nutrient intake, achievement of the Scottish Dietary Goals, and greenhouse gas emissions.
The broader influences such as cultural and financial challenges which children and young people and their families face in making healthy changes to their diets are not addressed by this report.
1.3. Rationale for selection of nutrients
This work focused on energy and seven nutrients: protein, calcium, iron, iodine, selenium, zinc, and vitamin B12. These were selected because meat and dairy are sources of these nutrients.
1.4. Explanation of dietary reference values (DRVs)
Reductions in meat and dairy consumption will lead to lower intakes of the nutrients found in these foods, though some of these can be replaced by foods consumed in their place. The net change will range from a reduction to an increase in nutrient intake, depending on the amount of nutrients in the foods substituted for the meat and dairy foods.
The impact of these changes on nutrient intake can be assessed by comparison with the recommended intake of each nutrient. In the UK, the following metrics are used to assess nutrient adequacy (2):
- Reference nutrient intake (RNI): the intake that is adequate for 97.5% of the population.
- Estimated average requirement (EAR): the intake that is adequate for 50% of the population.
- LRNI: the intake that is adequate for 2.5% of the population.
Values are given for different sex and age groups to reflect the variation in nutrient needs according to differences in body size and physiological factors.
1.5. Format of this report
Chapter 2 summarises current intakes of meat and dairy. Chapter 3 describes the simulations evaluated.
Chapters 4 to 6 summarise results of the simulations, including the impact on energy and nutrient intake (Chapter 4), adherence to the Scottish Dietary Goals (Chapter 5), and greenhouse gas emissions (Chapter 6).
Chapter 7 summarises key messages of the survey, discusses the results relative to a similar report (Modelling the impact of reductions in meat and dairy consumption on nutrient intakes and disease risk) in adults 16+ years living in Scotland, and provides recommendations for future research and policy.
Throughout the report and at the end of major sections, important information and key messages are provided in a grey box to aid the interpretation of results.