Modelling the impact of reduction in meat and dairy consumption on nutrient intakes and greenhouse gas emissions in children and young people living in Scotland

Research from the University of Edinburgh to understand the impact of reducing meat and dairy on diet and related health

Summary

In December 2022, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) recommended that the Scottish Government (SG) “take low-cost, low-regret actions to encourage a 20% shift away from all meat by 2030, rising to 35% by 2050, and a 20% shift from dairy products by 2030”.

In February 2025, the CCC published its Seventh Carbon Budget, which included a shift to lower-carbon choices, particularly a shift from meat (especially beef and lamb) and dairy consumption to plant-based foods, within overall healthier diets.

Food Standards Scotland (FSS) commissioned research from the University of Edinburgh to understand the impact of reducing meat and dairy on diet and related health.

This report is the second phase of the research and used data on dietary intakes collected in children and young people from the 2024 FSS Dietary Intake in Scotland’s Children Survey (DISH). The first phase explored the impact of the recommendations in adults, and was published in March 2024.

The new report modelled a number of scenarios to reduce meat and dairy to assess the potential impacts on energy and nutrient intakes, achievement of the Scottish Dietary Goals (SDG) and greenhouse gas emissions in children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland.

It is important to note that the CCC recommendations relate to the average UK diet. Individual reductions will vary by various characteristics such as current consumption levels, age, and personal preference. For example, adults currently consuming well above the Eatwell recommended level of red and processed meat may see much larger reductions than adolescent girls, who are at higher risk of insufficient micronutrient intake and may not need to reduce their consumption at all in a scenario wherein population average intake still declines.

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