• Summary briefing

Modelling the impact of reduction in meat and dairy consumption on nutrient intakes and greenhouse gas emissions in children and young people living in Scotland: summary briefing

Content: Summary briefing

Published by:

  • Food Standards Scotland
  • Table 1 Most commonly reported meat-containing food items within the top five contributing sub food groups to meat consumption among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland, 2024 (% frequency among consumers).
  • Table 2 Most commonly reported meat-containing food items within the 'Other beef and veal including homemade recipe dishes' sub food group contributing to meat consumption among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland, 2024 (% frequency among consumers)
  • Table 3 Table 3. Most commonly reported meat-containing food items within the 'Sandwiches' sub food group contributing to meat consumption among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland, 2024 (% frequency among consumers)
  • Table 4 Most commonly reported meat-containing food items within the 'Coated chicken and turkey manufactured' sub food group contributing to meat consumption among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland, 2024 (% frequency among consumers)
  • Table 5 Most commonly reported meat-containing food items within the 'Other sausages including homemade recipe dishes' sub food group contributing to meat consumption among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland, 2024 (% frequency among consumers)
  • Table 6 Summary of the percentage of the population below the LRNI for key nutrients among children and young people age 2 to 15 years living in Scotland at baseline (2024) and following a reduction in red and red processed meat to achieve a 35% reduction in “total meat” together with a 20% reduction in dairy and no replacement
  • Table 7 Summary of percentage of the population below the LRNI for key nutrients among children and young people aged 2 to 15 years living in Scotland at baseline (2024) and following a reduction in red and red processed meat to achieve a 20% or 35% reduction in “total meat” together with a 20% reduction in dairy and no replacement

Introduction

Since 2008, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has published statutory reports with cross-sectoral recommendations for the UK and devolved governments on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The 2022 progress report included the following dietary recommendation to the Scottish Government (SG): “take low-cost, low-regret actions to encourage a 20% shift away from all meat by 2030, rising to 35% by 2050, and a 20% shift from dairy products by 2030.” On 20 June 2023, SG partially accepted this recommendation.

To understand the impact of achieving these recommendations on diet and related health, Food Standards Scotland (FSS) commissioned research from the University of Edinburgh, using data on dietary intakes in adults, collected as part of the Scottish Health Survey (SHeS) in 2021. In phase one, the researchers modelled a number of scenarios to reduce meat and dairy to assess effects on energy and nutrient intakes, achievement of the Scottish Dietary Goals (SDG) and potential impacts on health in adults living in Scotland.

In their most recent advice (PDF, 9.6MB), issued in May 2025, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) recommended that SG encourages a 30% reduction in total meat consumption, which includes all types of meat, and a 20% reduction in dairy consumption, by 2045. Within this, they recommend a 25% reduction in red meat by 2035. This was aimed at reducing carbon emissions and references health co-benefits. 

Following publication of the FSS report on Dietary intakes in Scotland’s Children (DISH) in February 2025, further modelling was conducted to understand the impact of meat and dairy reductions in children. This analysis replicated the methodology used to assess impacts in adults, based on the 2022 recommendations from the CCC.

For the modelling, the following definitions were used for meat and dairy.

Meat: beef, lamb, pork, other red meat, offal, poultry, game birds, processed red meat, processed poultry, burgers, and sausages.

Red and red processed meat: beef, lamb, pork, other red meat, processed red meat, burgers, sausages and offal. 

Processed meat: processed red meat and processed poultry. 

Dairy products: milk, cheese, yogurt, creams and butter.

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